Grain Snippet: Feedgrain Forecasts Point to Comfortable Supply
Global feedgrain markets remain comfortable on paper, and barley continues to trade in the shadow of a large corn balance sheet. South America remains the main pressure point, with Brazil’s total corn crop estimated near 138MMT, of which the Safrina corn crop is still estimated at a large 106MMT. Mato Grosso yields are helping offset drought losses in Goiás, keeping harvest pressure across global feed values. Brazil’s record 181.8MMT soybean crop also adds to the broader feeling of comfortable South American supply.
The US corn crop has also made a clean start, with planting 93% complete, 76% emerged and conditions at 67% good-to-excellent. That is only slightly below last year and has limited any immediate weather premium. CBOT corn has pushed lower as a result, with July futures testing April lows near US$4.38/bu as South American supply, firm production estimates and weaker US export competitiveness weigh on the market.
For barley, China remains the key demand variable for Australia. Chinese barley imports for 2025/26 have been revised higher to 11.5MMT, up 1MMT from prior estimates, with Australia accounting for 58% of China’s barley imports from Oct-Mar. China’s demand has helped support Australian export values, most notably as Australian barley exports reached 6.6MMT over Oct-Mar (up 2MMT y/y), of which 5MMT (76%) was exported to China.
The risk is that rain through China’s wheat harvest increases low-quality feed wheat supply, reducing import demand for feed barley, corn and sorghum. Any slowdown in Chinese buying would leave Australia more exposed to price-sensitive buyers, notably Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile French, Ukrainian, Canadian and Argentine barley are all expected to compete into global demand. A US/China trade deal could also see US corn and sorghum displace other feedgrains such as Aussie barley.
Australia remains well supplied after a record 16.3MMT 2025/26 barley crop, up 23% y/y. However, the carryout is not considered burdensome, with strong export demand and lower carry-in helping absorb supply. Looking ahead, Australian 2026/27 barley production is forecast at 14.1MMT, down 2.2MMT y/y, mainly on a return toward more normal yields.
Nationally barley planted area is estimated around 183kHa higher according to ABARES (up 3.8% y/y) to 4.9Mha. WA’s state forecaster (GIWA) pegs their barley area near 2.22Mha above earlier expectations near 2.0Mha. Kwinana remains the largest WA barley zone at 1MHa, followed by Albany at 0.8MHa. If conditions hold, Australia still has the potential to produce a solid exportable surplus.
Globally, the balance sheet remains comfortable but weather-sensitive. Canada’s barley crop is forecast at 8.4MMT, down 1.4MMT y/y, with barley seeding delayed due to a late snow melt, leaving potential for yield losses come harvest. A potential Super El Niño also remains a risk to monitor, with hotter or drier conditions across South America or the US capable of quickly changing the global feedgrain tone.
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