Grain Snippet: Barley Stays Buoyant Amid Choppy Global Times
Barley is finding support heading into the 2026 season, although the broader outlook still suggests upside may be limited for now. As planting ramps up across southern Australia, the season is arriving with a mix of encouragement and caution. Opening soil moisture has been some of the best seen in years, giving many growers a solid starting point, but rising input costs are already creating pressure before many crops are even in the ground. Fuel prices have pushed higher amid ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, while urea has become harder to source and more expensive, adding another layer of cost concern at the front end of the season.
Despite the global volatility, old crop barley prices have held up reasonably well. Values have remained relatively steady over recent months, with BAR1 sitting around $300/MT in Adelaide and $323/MT in Geelong. New crop values have also been edging higher, with 2026/27 bids indicated near $307/MT in Adelaide and $320/MT in Geelong. Price resilience has stood out, for barley amid other major grains, particularly given the heavy global grain supply backdrop.
Internationally, the corn market remains an important influence on feedgrain values, but the picture is mixed rather than outright bearish. Early estimates suggest 2026/27 global corn production could ease slightly from last year’s levels, largely because of lower expected US planted area. Even so, supply remains ample overall, especially with another large South American crop still in play, with production down 16.8MMT year-on-year. In barley, the global balance sheet is also still relatively heavy, although early forecasts point to some tightening in the year ahead, particularly among major exporters such as Canada and the EU.
China remains the major pillar of support for Australian barley. Australian barley exports for the 2025/26 to date are running ahead of last year, with China taking roughly three quarters of Australian barley exports so far. Chinese barley imports are also holding firm, and current forecasts suggest import demand will remain steady at 10.5MMT into 2026/27. That ongoing appetite is a key reason Australian barley continues to show resilience, even in the face of large domestic production.
Locally, Australia is still working through the effects of a record 2025/26 barley crop, with production pegged above 16 million tonnes. Even so, ending stocks are not expected to become overly burdensome, largely because export demand has remained strong and carry-in stocks were lower to begin with. One of the clearest signs of barley’s relative strength has been the tight spread to wheat. Old crop wheat is trading at only about a $25-30/MT premium to barley, in both domestic and export markets, well below the five-year average of $50/MT, highlighting barley’s solid place in the domestic and export market.
While South Australia and Victoria have enjoyed a favourable opening break, a drier start NSW and to an extent WA, along with a dry outlook all across Australia still leave room for production risk later in the season. If those larger producing states run into trouble, barley values could find further support through a tighter domestic supply balance and firmer basis.
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