The Russia–Ukraine conflict has once again shaken cereal markets following Russia and Ukraine trading blows over shipping in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. As the Sea of Azov handles around one-quarter of Russia's grain exports, the disruption on 10th of July has...
The recent Black Sea conflict reminded markets that the Russia–Ukraine war remains an ongoing risk to global wheat markets. The rally was triggered by Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian vessels and infrastructure in the Sea of Azov, prompting Russia to temporarily halt shipping in the...
New-crop 26/27 lentil prices have declined roughly $50/MT over the last month on a delivered Adelaide and Melbourne basis, now circa $600/MT. A primary driver behind the decline is the improving new-crop prospects for Australia, with ABARES pegging production at a record 2.2MMT. According to...
ABARES forecasts the 26/27 Australian canola crop area at 3.5Mha which is down slightly y/y by 0.2Mha and at trend yield, production is forecast at 6.2MMT down 1.5MMT y/y. SA and Vic 26/27 canola crops have experienced exceptional growing conditions for the start of the...
Over the past month, new crop wheat prices in SA and VIC have declined by approximately $25/MT, while old crop values have eased by around $15/MT. Local cash markets have been pressured by widespread rainfall across Australian cropping regions, improving production prospects, alongside bearish global...
Global feedgrain markets remain comfortable on paper, and barley continues to trade in the shadow of a large corn balance sheet. South America remains the main pressure point, with Brazil’s total corn crop estimated near 138MMT, of which the Safrina corn crop is still estimated...
Old-crop lentil prices have continued to drift lower, despite a recent pullback in the Australian dollar and limited grower selling liquidity. The seasonal strength seen through April and May has faded, and old-crop bids are now converging with new-crop indications, which are sitting around $650–655/mt...
The South Australian 26/27 canola crop is off to a flying start with seeding nearing completion and early vigour has been excellent. Following poor starts in the previous two seasons, the first half of 2026 has been a sharp contrast. High rainfall through March and...
Over the past month, SA and VIC wheat prices have traded within a $15/MT range. In the first half of May, SA and VIC prices increased to $360/MT and $375/MT respectively. The rally underpinned by stronger futures markets on the WASDE report release, which forecast...
Barley markets are heading into the 2026/27 season with a fairly balanced outlook, although weather risks are becoming more important, most notably for Australia’s east coast. Global supply is still comfortable after a strong 2025/26 production year, but the market is no longer trading purely...