Grain Snippet: WASDE Revisions Add Pressure to Wheat Market
SA and VIC wheat markets have remained under pressure this month, with Port Adelaide APW1 down $12/MT and Portland $14/MT since early September. This decline has been driven by weaker global wheat futures, a firmer Australian dollar, and easing basis levels.
Of note, global wheat futures have been trending lower since late June, with December Soft Red Wheat, Hard Red Wheat, and Spring Wheat hitting new lows on 22 September. This downturn is driven by abundant global wheat production. According to the latest WASDE report, major exporters’ output is revised sharply higher to 406.5 MMT, up 9.2 MMT (2.3%) from last month and 18.6 MMT (4.8%) from a year ago. If realised, this would mark record production amid the major wheat exporters.
The largest revision came from Australia, reflecting favourable rainfall across much of the wheat belt since late June. The USDA forecasts Australian wheat production at 34.5 MMT, up 3.5 MMT from the previous month, slightly above last season and the five-year average. If realised, it would be the third-largest crop on record.
In SA and VIC, improved conditions and increased grower selling have softened basis since August, putting pressure on local wheat prices. Port Adelaide basis is near 45 USc/bu, down 14 USc/bu on the month, while Portland basis has eased 14 USc/bu to 56 USc/bu. Selling activity has picked up, though some growers remain cautious about production confidence. Looking ahead to October, the BOM is forecasting average rainfall across southeastern Australia.
Russia’s wheat production is revised to 85 MMT, up 1.5 MMT month on month and 3.4MMT year on year, close to its five-year average. The revision reflects higher yields in the Central, Volga, and spring wheat regions, which offset weaker crops in the south. Higher production, combined with a sluggish import pace, has kept pressure on prices. Russian wheat FOB values have fallen from a high of USD 242/MT in August to USD 228/MT, weighing on the global market.
On demand, China has been the leading buyer of Australian wheat, but over the past three years its demand profile has shifted as higher domestic production and larger carry-in stocks reduced import needs, with purchases declining since September 2024. In the 2025/26 season, China’s wheat imports are forecast at 6 MMT, relatively higher than in 2024/25 due to dryness concerns in some key growing regions, though still not comparable with the large import years (such as 13.6 MMT in 2023/24). Additionally, China’s 2025/26 wheat production is sizable at 140 MMT, relatively unchanged from last season.
Winter wheat planting for the 2026/27 season is underway in the US and Ukraine. Ukraine’s economy ministry projects the planted area at 4.78 mHa, slightly higher than in the 2025/26 season. In the US, winter wheat sowing is 20% complete, slight below the last year and the five-year average, with soil conditions reported as favourable across key regions.
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