Grain Snippet: Lentil Prices Steady Amid Canadian Harvest Results
Canadian lentil prices have begun to recover from their recent lows as the market moves further through harvest. By the end of August, 73% of Saskatchewan’s lentil crop had been harvested, with reported yields highly variable following challenging seasonal conditions. Current national production estimates broadly range between 2.3–2.5 MMT, substantially below last year’s record crop of 3.36MMT. Canada still carries roughly 1.2 MMT of lentils from last season, keeping total supplies historically high. However, slower grower deliveries, variable yields and a smaller new crop have reduced some of the harvest pressure that weighed on prices earlier in the season, allowing Canadian red lentil values to firm through late August and early September. The timing is notable, as prices have strengthened during a period when seasonal harvest pressure would normally be strongest.
In India, the 2026 monsoon has been weaker than normal, with cumulative rainfall through the end of August around 14% below average. September rainfall is also expected to remain below normal, increasing uncertainty around late-season crop development and soil moisture ahead of rabi planting. Pigeon pea area ultimately recovered despite the slow monsoon onset, reaching approximately 4.57 mil ha by early September, broadly similar to last year and slightly above normal. Attention has therefore shifted from planted area toward potential yield impacts and moisture availability for India’s subsequent winter pulse crops. These conditions remain important for the broader pulse balance, particularly as India enters the period when expectations for its domestic lentil crop and import requirements begin to develop. A meaningful drop in pigeon pea production has historically resulted in improved pulse imports, including lentils.
In Australia, the substantial 2026/27 supply outlook continues to limit the influence of these firmer offshore signals. ABARES’ underlying September production estimate is approximately 2.25 MMT, although broader market expectations remain closer to 2.4–2.5 MMT. This follows a season in which Australia also entered with considerable old-crop stocks.
Importantly, those old-crop stocks continue to be worked through. ABS data show July lentil exports reached 175k MT, the largest monthly volume since January, led by India at 78.2k MT and Bangladesh at 65.7k MT. Cumulative October–July exports reached approximately 1.49 MMT, around 57% above the same period last season. While these shipments relate to the old crop rather than 2026/27 production, the export pace indicates that Australian stocks are being drawn down broadly in line with current supply-and-demand expectations ahead of the new harvest.
Against this backdrop, Australian 2026/27 lentil prices have recently steadied around A$570–580/MT for November–December delivery Adelaide basis. The market is therefore balancing a firmer Canadian price environment and continued weather uncertainty in India against expectations for another very large Australian crop and substantial new-season availability.
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