September was marked by a sharp decline in global wheat prices, with Dec-26 US soft red winter wheat futures falling by 67 USc/bu, equivalent to approximately A$37/MT. The decline was driven by renewed optimism surrounding Russia–Ukraine peace talks and sluggish demand for US wheat due...
Australia is heading towards another exceptionally large barley crop, setting up a market increasingly defined by the balance between harvest pressure and export demand. ABARES is forecasting 2026/27 Australian barley production at 16.4MMT, while USDA is higher at a record 17.1MMT. South Australia and Victoria remain...
South Australian 26/27 season canola crops are shaping up for record yields in some regions and production is likely to exceed the record 684kMT set in the 22/23 season. Production is likely to be up due to the area planted of 238kha up 15kha y/y...
Canadian lentil prices have begun to recover from their recent lows as the market moves further through harvest. By the end of August, 73% of Saskatchewan’s lentil crop had been harvested, with reported yields highly variable following challenging seasonal conditions. Current national production estimates broadly...
The Black Sea war remains at the centre of the wheat market. In July, renewed speculation over potential Russia–Ukraine peace talks briefly weighed on sentiment. However, with no concrete outcome confirmed, the market has continued its upward trend. Since early August, Dec US soft red winter...
Canola markets have eased over the past week after a strong run through July and early August. Adelaide new-season non-GM canola fell from around A$832/MT on 18 August to A$812/MT by 24 August, while GM values fell from A$805/MT to around A$785/MT. The fall was...
South Australia’s barley crop is heading towards spring in a considerably stronger position than appeared likely earlier in the season, with favourable autumn and winter rainfall supporting strong yield potential across much of the state. ABARES currently forecasts SA barley area at around 880,000 Ha, up...
Rainfall through SA and Vic has been above average over the last couple months and thus been strongly supportive of increased yield potential for 26/27 lentils. Australian lentil crop production forecasts are getting larger; ABARES had estimated the national lentil crop at around 2.2MMT, but...
The Black Sea conflict remained the key driver of the global wheat market throughout July. However, ongoing attacks on grain export vessels and infrastructure failed to prevent wheat futures from declining over the second half of the month. Since 24 July, December 2026 CBOT Soft...
The recent Black Sea conflict reminded markets that the Russia–Ukraine war remains an ongoing risk to global wheat markets. The rally was triggered by Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian vessels and infrastructure in the Sea of Azov, prompting Russia to temporarily halt shipping in the...