Grain Snippet: China Keeps Aussie Barley Steady Into Seeding
As growers shift focus toward seeding the 2026/27 crop, attention is turning to new crop pricing against a backdrop of rising input costs and tightening margins. While planning for the season ahead is well underway, barley continues to hold its own, supported by strong demand for Australian Fair Average Quality (FAQ) barley into China.
Aussie barley values have been steady to firmer over the past month, offering some encouragement ahead of sowing. Adelaide 25/26 prices have lifted around $7/MT to near $300/MT, while Geelong has seen a stronger move, up $18/MT to approximately $324/MT. Other South Australian ports have remained relatively steady in the mid-$290/MT range. Looking ahead, 26/27 new crop pricing has also edged higher, with Adelaide values up around $10/MT to circa $300/MT. While not historically high, these levels remain supportive and worth monitoring as planting decisions are made.
Globally, the corn market continues to influence feedgrain direction, though Aussie barley and US corn typically diverge post-harvest as they respond to different demand drivers. In Argentina, harvest progress is slightly behind last year at 13% complete, with 62% of the crop rated good to excellent—well above 29% a year ago. The USDA has forecast US new crop corn production at 400.2 MMT, down 30 MMT year-on-year, reflecting reduced profitability versus soybeans and a return to more average yields. Importantly, corn also follows as an energy market due to its role in ethanol production. Recent strength has been driven by the Iran/US conflict spilling into oil markets, with higher crude prices underpinning corn values. While this can lend support to feedgrains more broadly, including barley, any flow-on is more likely to be reflected in new crop 2026/27 pricing rather than old crop, where Australian barley remains more influenced by demand for Fair Average Quality (FAQ) into China.
China remains central to the Australian barley story. Forecasts place 2026/27 imports at 10.5 MMT, unchanged from last reinforcing a stable demand base. Australian exports have started strongly, with 2025/26 shipments reaching 3.7 MMT—up 1 MMT year-on-year and well above the four-year average. China continues to dominate as the key destination, accounting for around 75% of exports, and remains a key pillar supporting prices.
On the supply side, global barley production is expected to ease slightly. The EU’s 2026/27 crop is forecast at 59.3 MMT, down from 63.6 MMT year-on-year, while Canada is expected to produce 8.5 MMT, down from 9.7 MMT. While not dramatic, these declines point to a less burdensome global supply outlook.
Domestically, recent rainfall has provided a timely boost ahead of seeding. Follow-up rain from a slow-moving inland trough exceeded expectations, with most cropping regions across South Australia and Victoria now recording above-average March rainfall. The SA and Vic Mallee have been standout performers, averaging around 100mm.
Overall, supportive pricing, steady Chinese demand and improved soil moisture provide a positive—though cautious—backdrop as growers prepare for the season ahead.
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