Grain Snippet: Barley Emboldened by Chinese Demand
As headers are cleaned down and harvesters are finally parked up in the shed for another growing season, most growers are enjoying a short-lived break post-harvest.
Locally, BAR1 in Adelaide has continued to edge higher post-harvest, now sitting at $305/MT — up $11/MT over the past two weeks. Geelong has been a little steadier, lifting a more modest $2/MT to $314/MT. Delivered markets appear comfortable around $310–315/MT delivered in the Adelaide zone, with many feedlots and mills having covered a large portion of their nearby requirements over harvest. This buying was driven by lingering concerns around availability following last year’s drought, combined with low grower selling liquidity for on-farm stocks. There’s also been an increase in containerised market interest on a delivered-packer basis destined for China, reinforcing Chian’s strong barley demand from Australia, and not just in the system.
Australia remains well supplied with barley with the 2025/26 season meeting record production estimated at 15.5 MMT, unchanged month-on-month and up 2.24 MMT year-on-year. Ending stocks are forecast at 1.78 MMT, up from 0.88 MMT on last year, reflective of the strong production year being partly met with stronger export demand mainly from China. Australia continues to play a key role supplying Asian and Middle Eastern markets, while domestic consumption remains a smaller component of total usage.
The APW1/BAR1 wheat spread has continued to narrow over the past month, now at historically tight levels. In the Adelaide zone it now sits at just $7/MT, $13/MT in Geelong, and is even tighter further north — $3/MT in the Wallaroo zone (Bunge), an inverse of -$7/MT at T-Ports, and -$6/MT in the Lincoln zone. This is well below the five-year average of ~$65/MT for this time of year. This historically tight spread highlights the market’s current preference for barley, underpinned by strong Chinese demand, whilst wheat demand remains tepid.
Global feedgrain markets remain dominated by exceptionally large corn supplies, which continue to cap upside in corn futures and feed export markets. The recent WASDE report revised global coarse grain production up by 14.8 MMT m/m to 1,591 MMT, driven largely by higher corn production in the United States and China (both increased by 13.0 MMT m/m). This lifts world production by a significant 79.5 MMT y/y. The heavier supply outlook has pressured the export market, with US and Brazil corn bids both reported at USD $221/MT, down around USD $7/MT since early January.
The United States remains the primary driver of global corn price pressure. The USDA lifted 2025/26 US corn production to 432.0 MMT on higher national yields and increased harvested area. With higher production, US corn ending stocks rose to 55.9 MMT (up 17.2 MMT y/y), leaving the US balance sheet comfortably supplied.
Despite record corn production and large global barley supplies, local barley prices have remained steady, supported by strong and concentrated Chinese demand. This divergence underscores that demand structure and trade-flow dynamics, rather than headline production alone, are driving current feed grain prices in SA and Vic.
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