Grain Snippet: Strong Chinese Barley Demand Meets Firm Aussie Dollar
As growers shift their focus from harvest toward summer spraying and early planting plans, strong export demand continues to absorb Australia’s record barley crop. Globally, prices remain relatively steady; however, a firmer Australian dollar is tempering local returns and capping upside in domestic values.
Domestic track values have eased across key southern zones over the past month. BAR1 in Adelaide is down around $8/mt to $295/mt, while Geelong has slipped roughly $5/mt to $310/mt. In contrast, delivered bids have been comparatively resilient, holding near $310/mt in parts of the Adelaide zone. That firmness suggests domestic end-users remain active where freight advantages and prompt supply matter. However, many delivered markets — particularly feedlots and mills in the south-east and Victoria — appear comfortably covered in the short to medium term after strong buying through harvest, reducing urgency for additional nearby coverage.
One notable difference to last season is the shipping stem. Export capacity across several ports appears limited, with the first open slots not emerging until mid-year. While it remains too early to determine which commodities will ultimately fill those windows, the relatively full shipping program stands in contrast to last year’s shipping stem which was filled with holes. In a large-crop environment, the pace and efficiency of export execution can be just as influential as total production in shaping short-term price behaviour.
On the supply side, Australia remains well supplied. Barley production for 2025/26 is estimated at 15.5 MMT, up year-on-year. Despite that larger crop, ending stocks are forecast around 1.78 MMT — relatively tight in the context of record output — reflecting steady offtake into export channels. China remains the dominant demand centre, with 2025/26 imports estimated at 10.5 MMT, marginally above the prior season.
Recent shipping data suggests that demand is translating into physical movement. December barley exports totalled 1.22 MMT — the largest monthly shipment since December 2023 — comprising roughly 875 kMT of feed and 349 kMT of malting barley, highlighting broad-based grade demand. China accounted for around 960 kMT of that volume, while Saudi Arabia remained active at approximately 226 kMT.
Relative value across grains continues to shape barley’s positioning. The APW1–BAR1 spread has stayed historically tight in many zones, with Adelaide and Geelong sitting around $10/mt, and some secondary regions seeing wheat and barley trading at or near evens. This departure from longer-run spread averages reflects a market still leaning toward barley demand, as global wheat supply remains comparatively burdensome.
In north-eastern Australia, feed markets have added another layer of complexity. Drier conditions across parts of New South Wales and southern Queensland have lifted feeding demand and tightened nearby liquidity. At the same time, growers in those regions — coming off multiple strong production years — have been measured sellers, supporting delivered premiums. By contrast, parts of South Australia and Victoria have seen softer nearby values, where liquidity has been higher and export pathways more consistent.
Globally, barley export values have generally firmed since November despite sizeable world supply, with Chinese demand again acting as a key stabiliser. Even so, the broader feed complex remains influential. Abundant global corn supplies can limit the extent of barley rallies in the absence of a weather disruption or material demand shift, keeping currency movements and export execution central to Australia’s barley price outlook in the months ahead.
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