Grain Snippet: Laggard Lentil Harvest Lends Price Support
The Aussie lentil harvest is well underway, despite the hold-ups from ongoing rainfall. Some growers have been getting total precipitation up to 50-60mm since the start of November. Growers in the Vic Mallee and SA’s Upper North have seen between 5-25mm over the same period. The late rains have benefited yields for some growers, particularly with the later start to the season, however it has been more of a logistical problem for many. Another consequence of the untimely weather has been increased defectives and weed seed counts for lentil receivals to-date.
A healthy amount of lentil export competition in SA has been supportive for prices, albeit with commitments skewed toward the early harvest period. The timeline for November shipments has led to an inverse in the market, with ongoing price premiums for near-term deliveries. Bids range between $630-$645/MT in the Adelaide zone, but $590-600/MT in Port Lincoln and Wallaroo for harvest delivery. Similarly, Melbourne bids have been hovering near $640-650/MT with a $40-50/MT discount for up-country receivals in the Vic Wimmera. These prices are roughly $20/MT higher than in early November due to the harvest hold-ups and near-term demands.
Since the beginning of November, the Aussie dollar has declined from near 66c, to retest medium-term support near 64.7c. The relative decline in currency has lent additional support to lentil bids in Aussie dollar terms over the same period as the shipping shorts.
Over the longer term, the market remains in a bearish stance due to the large anticipated production amid the major producers around the globe. Canada has produced an estimated 3.0-3.2MMT, up from 2.4MMT in 24/25 and coming in 15-23% higher than prior forecasts. Australian production is likely to make a new record due to the large planted area this season, landing between 1.7-2.0MMT, depending on any further yield benefits garnered from the recent rains. Kazakhstan has also produced a record lentil crop estimated at 800kMT.
Meanwhile, Turkey has had a poor year, but their production deficit pales in comparison to the global increase and Turkey’s imports are unlikely to be sufficient to draw down stocks. Ending stocks for each Australia and Canada are expected to sharply increase, with stocks-to-use for each country forecast to rise above 50%.
The next major pulse crop after the Australian harvest will be the Indian Rabi crop, currently being planted in high-moisture conditions. The market will be watching India’s production prospects carefully to get new direction, if any, on price into 2026. Already, there has been an increase in India’s import duty on yellow peas due to a global over-supply and the Indian government’s goals of protecting domestic producers and self-reliance on pulses. With lentils also likely seeing a global glut this season, and India’s food price inflation trending lower, there’s rumours of increased lentil import duties in India.
With the current lentil market under supply pressure, beyond harvest cash-flow requirements, we could see more growers hold onto their lentils in 25/26 as they await a new market catalyst.
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