Grain Snippet: Local Barley Held Up with Delayed Harvest
The US corn harvest is wrapping up, with estimates putting total production near a record 425MMT. But the month-long US government shutdown has made it difficult to pin down updated yield results or export data, leaving markets to run on increased speculation whilst data sits dormant. With USDA reports on hold, traders have turned to private forecasts that peg yields closer to 12.2MT/ha— slightly below the last official figure of 12.6MT/ha. That gap has stirred some debate and volatility. In the meantime, soybeans have led a speculative rally on talk of renewed US–China trade progress, spilling some support into corn, while ethanol margins and energy-linked spreads have kept demand discussions in focus.
Dec ’25 Corn has extended its recovery from the September lows near 395 USc/bu, forming a clear sequence of higher lows and consolidating just above former resistance at 423 USc/bu, and has been trading in a sideways consolidation phase over the past week. The contract has briefly tested resistance at 435 USc/bu — a level last traded in July — but follow-through remains limited. On the fundamental side, US corn export sales remain solid with cumulative shipments for the 25/26 marketing year at roughly 58% ahead of last season. However, weaker energy markets continue to temper demand: ethanol futures hover near US $1.68/gal, and softer crude oil forecasts into 2026 imply limited upside for processing margins and feedstock use in the near term.
Across South America, corn planting is progressing well under mostly favourable conditions. Brazil’s first-crop corn is 62% planted, right on the 5-year average, while Argentina has reached nearly 34% — ahead of schedule relative to last year and the 5-year average. Improved rainfall in Argentina has also helped barley yields, with production estimates currently around 5.0–5.2 MMT. Together with strong South American prospects, global feed grain supply is building, with the IGC estimating major corn exporters at 717.8 MMT, up 43.8 MMT (6.5%) from last year.
Meanwhile, local grain markets have held relatively steady. Barley harvest is progressing across WA, Queensland and northern NSW under mostly favourable weather, with early yields exceeding expectations. South Australia and Victoria are just starting to see headers roll, though progress remains slow. Domestic feed-grain values are mostly unchanged, supported by a softer AUD over the past month and a late start to harvest. Basis has been steady to slightly stronger, offsetting some weakness in global values. As harvest gathers pace, however, growers should expect typical seasonal pressure on prices.
At the time of writing, 25/26 track bids sit around $291/MT in the Adelaide zone and $312/MT in Geelong, with delivered values into Adelaide $290–300/MT. With barley at roughly a $31/MT discount to APW1 — still historically tight for this stage of the season — the feed grain complex remains well-supported heading into harvest’s main stretch.
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